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Changes in value of a couple of ethanol stocks
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RayJenkins
Posted 7/10/2012 20:57 (#2478196 - in reply to #2478063)
Subject: Re: Changes in value of a couple of ethanol stocks


SC Iowa
White shadow.....if you would think about what I am advocating, it is a scenario where we are actually using MORE corn in succeeding years, not less.

There is really only one demand segment that can slow way down or stop, and then resume full throttle production the following year when supplies are (hopefully) abundant. Once the livestock are reduced, getting back to the same usage rates can take substantial periods of time, and there is some concern that a big livestock liquidation could be the start of a major "off-shoring" of our livestock business.

Under a dire set of circumstances, we could have $9 corn this year and $3.50-4.00 corn in the fall of 2013.

If our intent was to bust the market, as you believe, the easiest way to see that happen is to do virtually nothing and "don't worry, be happy" and let the market decide the winners and losers based on one particular demand segment being mandated, while the others are not.

For the record, only 15% of the corn used in Eddyville is made into ethanol. The balance goes into sweeteners and feedstock for our own fermentation processes, and to provide feedstock for our neighbors who are also in the fermentation business.

Ray J

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