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| You gotta keep marketing so to speak, on the claim bushels. It's anyone's guess where prices will be come the Oct. averaging period. You have a bird in the hand anytime we're above the spring base price. If you know you have losses, you can price those losses by hedging the bushel claim you anticipate just like you would hedge a growning crop that you plan to sell this fall.
Picking a top is a fools game so best approach in my opinion is...
*Make an assuption of what your bushel claim will be this fall.
*Run different price levels for insurance against that bushels claim to get overall idea of impact to the operation.
*Hedge the levels that trip your trigger.
*Can either short Dec. futures and lift out in Mid Oct. (middle of averaging period) or
*buy put options to cover the losses and exit in Mid Oct.
*I'd run an options program to avoid runaway margins and feeling like a fool if Oct. averages double digits.
The two birds in the bush are the Oct. averaging period.
Clear as mud I suspect! | |
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The question now is...
