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Jersey Shore, PA | "Cost of production per bu. is a moving number with each sound of thunder. Yeah, I have the cost of production by arce. The bu. number is a nightmare"
I'm not arguing with that statement at all. That's just where I start...............with trying to cover my costs. It is most definately a guessing game, but can at least be an educated guess.
Sounds like your marketing plan is more "defined" than mine?
I'll try to give you my version of your example:(actual this year)
Jan 07 prices are good........$4 corn...........I should lock in a little.............5k sold $4.05......my thinking is cant go wrong w/$4 corn. If it goes to 5 or 6 then so be it.
Planting season's looking a little dry, but everything is in the ground and off to a decent start, there's at least avg potential there right now......prices dropping a little, maybe I'll sell a little more..............another 5k sold $3.84. Now I'm about a third of my expected "normal" production.
Summer...........DAMN its getting dry............this summer sucks............is this crop going to be a complete disaster? Prices(charts) say I should be thinking of selling some more but I cant do it now with this weather.
August..........some scouting shows results all over the board for yields.......and I don't trust my numbers from samples enough to sell any more so I'll be content to sit it out until harvest. I have enough sold at good prices and the rest will go in our bins until another good opportunity comes up.
Is this good marketing??? I have no idea. I'm just telling you how it works for me. Now I've never had a COMPLETE disaster and I've never sold a boatload before planting even starts so I dont think I'll be in the "oversold" boat but you never know in farming. That's part of the fun isn't it:)
Like I said, I'm not disagreeing that cost/bu can not be known pre harvest...........just using as my starting point.
Scott | |
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$12.00 Soybeans?
