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market prices - are they priced right?
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John Burns
Posted 6/3/2007 20:22 (#157967 - in reply to #157853)
Subject: Now I'm lost



Pittsburg, Kansas

If I'm not mistaken currently dec07 futures are about 40 or 50 cents off their high right now. If you say cash bids are about the same, something had to get closer.

I think maybe you were talking in general that basis right now is wider than what we would have expected in prior years and I would definitely agree with that. If all these milo and wheat/bean guy neighbors of ours had not changed to all this corn..... would be nice to have the "good old days" when we could expect a positive 10-30 basis and occasionally maybe even +50 cents for some very early harvested stuff. I  suppose if corn really does "run out" around here the possibility exists to see that again but something tells me it isn't going to be the norm. But if it is going to "run out" some grain buyers sure don't think so right now if the basis is wide. Either they are mistaken or playing Russian Roulette. My guess is they know what they are doing, have their needs already covered via unit trains till harvest, and there will not be any big end of summer price run up.

I just have a hard time believing we are going to run out of corn around here but I have been wrong before (many times). The early stuff we used to sell to Carthage (now Sherwin) is mostly unit trains coming in about when we start harvest now of a little before so they do not have to pay up (smart for them, not so good for us). I can see it happening maybe next year when the E plants are mostly on line but I don't see a shortage this year. 

John 

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