I would contend that the market at any given time reflects all information availible. Whether it accurately predicts future events or not is a whole different discussion.  The average price over a period of time should tend to be pretty close to right.  Day to day or hour to hour, it will reflect the latest news. 

I think trying to beat the futures market is a fools errand.  Achieving an average price is what you are going to do over the long term, unless you are exceptionally lucky (or unlucky).   If marketing gurus really knew what they were doing, there wouldn't be any reason to sell advice.   The'd be much better off trading for themselves.  For the farmer, I think there's a lot more to be made on the storage and merchandizing side playing fairly predicitible basis trends, at least in our area.

The corn basis has been widening, not narrowing, here in the the land of positive basis.  This, in my opinion, has been happening in response to lots of people accellerating sales in response to percieved high prices starting soon after harvest.  There just isn't much corn left in the area from what I have been able to gather talking to quite a few significant players.  As this type of scenerio plays out in a deficit area users will be forced to increase cash bins to keep the mills running.  If Iowa really builds enough plants to eliminate their corn exports, there will no longer be a safety valve ready to dump millions of bushels into Arkansas if the basis  gets too wide.