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| Indicators sthmidicators (tech jargon, sorry) - the only place something is going on is temporarily due to gov't 'stimulus'. Once it runs out stuff returns to normal. Available jobs pay much less so maybe walmart ends up a little more busy. It's no doubt with commodity prices being higher there is more spending in the ag sector, but I'd say there is still caution since almost all of us know corn doesn't grow to the sky. If you look around, businesses are still failing pretty regularily.
Bottom line is most of the indicators have big holes in them - wallstreet? - whose money is that flying around and do the 'values' in stocks really mean anything? Jobs? folks are falling off the roles of the unemployed not by getting a job, but by being re-classified. Currently, if I could afford it, I could have 3 more people working for me in the next 10 minutes at $8/hr - I don't think my area is that different from the rest of the world. No I'd say lets not look to indicators until there is some correlation to reality.
We all know there is a political component to any government report regardless of who is in charge. Keep in mind though this is the crowd that thinks that if they repeat something enough it becomes true - like 'a service economy is no different than a manufacturing based economy' - last time I checked if you make something it continues to have value throughout it's useful life and even has scrap value - that can't be said for a service. Another example is global warming - say it over and over and claim imenent doom so it must be all true. The 'tell' is what happens next -'they' push for 'fixes' that generally concentrate power and money with a select few (and those few certainly don't abide by any new rules). If something gets repeated over and over, especially in the face of what appears to be the opposite you have to be suspect.
I'm not saying no company will do well - Ford sold more cars than GM - that speaks more about the state of GM and the general market and Ford's commitment to the product. The market used to be 10M cars/year, now it's less and ford is getting a bigger share of what's left. That doesn't indicate the economy is better. There are companies with cash from profits, but I'd say they tend to be in the ford camp - demand doesn't disappear completely, but what's left is sure a lot more selective. If you can provide the right product it will work - if not, there just isn't any demand. Unfortunately, as we get more service based we face much steeper drops - people will stop using a service much quicker than buying eggs.
Though it sounds a little gloomy - it's the gloominess that calls us to action, gets us to vote, gets us to say yes to reduced gov't handouts (even to me), etc - that's hope and change.
thanks,
Pat | |
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A quick business update
