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| two weeks ago when I first researched this and wrote it up for sake of totally being considered crazy.......... but I have decided to after practically 100% of the yields I have heard so far are 10-15% BELOW last year.
Below is a table of Iowa ear weights and avg temps(day and night) in
August the last 5 years.
2005 .360 ear weight 71.5 temp.
2006 .340 ear weight 72.0 temp.
2007 .335 ear weight 74.0 temp.
2008 .335 ear weight 69.8 temp.
2009 .350 ear weight 68.1 temp.
So in Iowa the last 5 years they have averaged approximately .344 ear
weights(not including cob). Also the avg temp(day and night) has averaged
71.1 degrees.
Just for kicks in 2004 avg temp was 66.2 in Iowa and ear weight was a record
at .368.
In 1995 the average temp in august was 76 degrees(the warmest in last 20
years) and the ear weight was a very light .285(the lightest behind the record wet year of 1993).
SO that brings me to 2010...... avg temp so far is 75.0 in Iowa (not official).
Since the USDA takes a 5 year average on ear weights on the August report I
think there is no doubt ear weights will be down 5-10% from the 5yr avg
whenever they actually weigh it just comparing it to past years. Also keep in mind that it has been
even WARMER overall in ill,ind,ohio this july/aug which will no doubt lower
the ear weights even more.
That's why I went with a yield of 150-155 based solely on ear weights being .31-.32
this year which is 7-10% less than the 5 yr avg of .344. I doubt we
get ear weights as low as 1995(at .285) because of the newer genetics now recouping some of that.
I have no doubt if you just count kernels and populations that you
come up with an avg yield of 164-165 on this years crop...but with the
lighter ear weights it will be 7-10% less I have a national crop at
150-155. . And since pro farmer came in with a yield of 169 for IOWA with AVERAGE ear weights
Iowa could really do closer to 160-163(or lower). USDA has them at 179 now!!!!!!
Illinois at 180 is a joke to in my book since they have been even
warmer than Iowa all of July and august. I say it will be sub 165-170 considering ear weights.
Time will tell!! Enjoy, | |
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I wasnt going to post this.......
