You are probably right on having some decent safety nets. $3 futures means $2.80 or worse cash price though. $3 cash price ($3.20 to $3.30 futures) would be extremely painful for me with normal yields.

I have set my futures price at a little over $4 on about 3/4 of my APH. Somewhere between $4.50 and $5.15 futures I would turn that into a fair amount more than my APH. At the top end of that range I would sell multiple years no matter how scary the margin calls might be.