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| Every bushel Russia raises is one more bushel of sales lost to U.S. farmers. Remember back to the 70s, they didnt raise much wheat then and look at them now. I predict 30 years from now Russia will raise a lot of soybeans. Difference will be they will have an export market. New genetics designed for their climate and soils , GDU etc. will be the straw that breaks the American farmers back. We will be able to idle 10 o 20 million or more acres here.
The Chinese aren't stupid. They wont let themselves get stuck in a situation again where they only have 1 or 2 suppliers of am essential commodity like soybeans. They would do what any smart country would do and diversify their sources for the sake of not being held hostage by the need for food. It's not any different then what we did here with oil. We as a country try have finally had enough of being dependant on middle eastern oil. Tired of the instability in the region and started drilling for our own oil and finding alternative sources.
I think the face of American agriculture has been changed forever by these tariffs. Only way we get 100 percent of our export market to the Chinese back is if trump words the trade agreement to have a quota of beans that must be purchased every year before sourcing other beans. Without it, the Chinese will buy from their newly established partners. I dont think many American farmers want to farm and sell beans for the price they will sell for to be competitive on the world market. I personally dont want to raise and sell beans for less than $9 to $9.50 a bushel unless my input cost go down by 40 or 50 percent or more.
Edited by Happy First Timer 11/17/2018 20:30
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World soy exports
