| Here is the data since the start of the marketing year.. http://www.fas.usda.gov/export-sales/wkHistData.htm Soybeans: Shipments Total Shipments Sales Total Sales New Crop Sales Total N/C 09/05/2013 | 60,126 | 60,126 | 1,406,560 | 21,896,311 | 0 | 0 | 09/12/2013 | 74,206 | 134,332 | 923,310 | 22,745,415 | 0 | 0 | 09/19/2013 | 442,501 | 576,833 | 2,816,832 | 25,119,746 | 9,500 | 9,500 | 09/26/2013 | 390,281 | 967,114 | 860,692 | 25,590,157 | 43,000 | 52,500 | 10/03/2013 | 851,744 | 1,818,858 | 929,752 | 25,668,165 | 18,000 | 70,500 | 10/10/2013 | 0 | 1,818,858 | 0 | 25,668,165 | 0 | 70,500 | 10/17/2013 | 0 | 1,818,858 | 0 | 25,668,165 | 0 | 70,500 | 10/24/2013 | 5,123,205 | 6,942,063 | 4,742,012 | 25,286,972 | 0 | 70,500 | 10/31/2013 | 2,138,499 | 9,080,562 | 997,114 | 24,145,587 | 18,700 | 89,200 | 11/07/2013 | 1,995,257 | 11,075,819 | 778,516 | 22,928,846 | 60,600 | 149,800 | 11/14/2013 | 2,488,635 | 13,564,454 | 1,376,396 | 21,816,607 | 0 | 149,800 | 11/21/2013 | 1,843,773 | 15,408,227 | 1,405,911 | 21,378,745 | 364,857 | 514,657 | 11/28/2013 | 1,878,126 | 17,286,353 | 805,241 | 20,305,860 | 355,614 | 870,271 | 12/05/2013 | 1,711,249 | 18,997,602 | 1,108,611 | 19,703,222 | 413,850 | 1,284,121 | 12/12/2013 | 1,569,241 | 20,492,050 | 415,508 | 18,549,489 | 80,210 | 1,364,331 |
Corn 09/05/2013 | 171,159 | 171,159 | 1,208,648 | 12,612,059 | 0 | 22,000 | 09/12/2013 | 518,809 | 689,968 | 437,384 | 12,530,634 | 0 | 22,000 | 09/19/2013 | 479,132 | 1,169,100 | 640,139 | 12,691,641 | 0 | 22,000 | 09/26/2013 | 546,226 | 1,715,326 | 775,189 | 12,920,604 | 0 | 22,000 | 10/03/2013 | 618,032 | 2,333,358 | 1,341,445 | 13,644,017 | 0 | 22,000 | 10/10/2013 | 0 | 2,333,358 | 0 | 13,644,017 | 0 | 22,000 | 10/17/2013 | 0 | 2,333,358 | 0 | 13,644,017 | 0 | 22,000 | 10/24/2013 | 2,094,386 | 4,427,744 | 4,555,497 | 16,105,128 | 737,956 | 759,956 | 10/31/2013 | 710,249 | 5,137,993 | 1,718,632 | 17,113,511 | 0 | 759,956 | 11/07/2013 | 463,789 | 5,601,782 | 1,202,862 | 17,852,584 | 0 | 759,956 | 11/14/2013 | 756,349 | 6,358,131 | 945,134 | 18,041,369 | 37,592 | 797,548 | 11/21/2013 | 700,970 | 7,059,101 | 1,006,980 | 18,347,379 | 0 | 797,548 | 11/28/2013 | 1,042,110 | 8,101,211 | 593,642 | 17,898,911 | 0 | 797,548 | 12/05/2013 | 977,448 | 9,078,659 | 695,425 | 17,616,888 | 109,400 | 906,948 | 12/12/2013 | 693,368 | 9,772,027 | 827,067 | 17,750,587 | 45,212 | 952,160 |
Wheat 06/06/2013 | 376,117 | 376,117 | 1,185,508 | 7,030,632 | 0 | 0 | 06/13/2013 | 619,143 | 995,260 | 432,736 | 6,844,225 | 2,000 | 2,000 | 06/20/2013 | 478,993 | 1,474,253 | 731,825 | 7,097,057 | 0 | 2,000 | 06/27/2013 | 688,478 | 2,162,731 | 593,028 | 7,001,607 | 0 | 2,000 | 07/04/2013 | 714,663 | 2,877,394 | 1,473,333 | 7,760,277 | 0 | 2,000 | 07/11/2013 | 726,000 | 3,603,394 | 996,628 | 8,030,905 | 0 | 2,000 | 07/18/2013 | 567,882 | 4,171,276 | 661,379 | 8,124,402 | 0 | 2,000 | 07/25/2013 | 627,400 | 4,798,676 | 596,906 | 8,093,908 | 0 | 2,000 | 08/01/2013 | 773,417 | 5,572,093 | 726,184 | 8,046,675 | 0 | 2,000 | 08/08/2013 | 709,917 | 6,282,010 | 490,148 | 7,826,906 | 5,500 | 7,500 | 08/15/2013 | 871,333 | 7,153,343 | 494,028 | 7,449,601 | 0 | 7,500 | 08/22/2013 | 824,451 | 7,977,794 | 551,306 | 7,176,456 | 0 | 7,500 | 08/29/2013 | 954,818 | 8,932,612 | 668,388 | 6,890,026 | 79,000 | 86,500 | 09/05/2013 | 911,925 | 9,844,537 | 543,882 | 6,521,983 | 8,000 | 94,500 | 09/12/2013 | 1,204,378 | 11,048,915 | 704,435 | 6,022,040 | (2,500) | 92,000 | 09/19/2013 | 1,028,500 | 12,077,415 | 620,212 | 5,613,752 | 0 | 92,000 | 09/26/2013 | 836,808 | 12,914,223 | 837,820 | 5,614,764 | 0 | 92,000 | 10/03/2013 | 835,351 | 13,749,574 | 653,633 | 5,433,046 | 0 | 92,000 | 10/10/2013 | 0 | 13,749,574 | 0 | 5,433,046 | 0 | 92,000 | 10/17/2013 | 0 | 13,749,574 | 0 | 5,433,046 | 0 | 92,000 | 10/24/2013 | 1,621,807 | 15,371,381 | 1,308,837 | 5,120,076 | 0 | 92,000 | 10/31/2013 | 312,027 | 15,683,408 | 416,796 | 5,224,845 | 11,000 | 103,000 | 11/07/2013 | 382,766 | 16,066,174 | 287,849 | 5,129,928 | 900 | 103,900 | 11/14/2013 | 551,467 | 16,617,641 | 618,113 | 5,196,574 | 0 | 103,900 | 11/21/2013 | 331,056 | 16,948,697 | 562,216 | 5,427,734 | 0 | 103,900 | 11/28/2013 | 369,390 | 17,318,087 | 229,176 | 5,287,520 | 0 | 103,900 | 12/05/2013 | 563,236 | 17,881,323 | 372,167 | 5,096,451 | 10,727 | 114,627 | 12/12/2013 | 376,501 | 18,257,824 | 656,092 | 5,376,042 | 3,000 | 117,627 |
Now from that I update this.. weekly.. going back the previous 4 years for the Same week's Sales and Shipments and compare that to that YEAR's SHIPMENTS.. (which takes out the carry over sales) so that gives us the ADDED Sales that are SHIPPED for that year.. average those.. and add that to this weeks numbers.. which gives us.. this: | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Soybeans | | | Corn | | | | | | | | | | Total Shipments | | | Total Shipments | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1990 | | 16.8 | | | | 58.7 | | | | | | | | 1991 | | 15.2 | | | | 42.9 | | | | | | | | 1992 | | 18.9 | | | | 39 | | | | | | | | 1993 | | 21.5 | | | | 40.3 | | | | | | | | 1994 | | 16.4 | | | | 32.2 | | | | | | | | 1995 | | 23.4 | | | | 54.7 | | | | All Wheat | | | 1996 | | 23.5 | | | | 55.7 | | | | Total Shipments | | | 1997 | | 24.5 | | | | 44.4 | | | | | | | | 1998 | | 22.9 | | | | 37.2 | | | | | | | | 1999 | | 26.9 | | | | 49.5 | | | | 25.5 | | | | 2000 | | 27.5 | | | | 48.7 | | | | 25.8 | | | | 2001 | | 29.9 | | | | 47.7 | | | | 24.1 | | | | 2002 | | 29.1 | | | | 48 | | | | 20.8 | | | | 2003 | | 24.1 | 12-Dec | | | 39.9 | 12-Dec | | | 29.6 | 12-Dec | | | 2004 | | 29.97 | Booked | | 48.2 | Booked | | | 26.6 | Booked | | | 2005 | | 25.5 | | | | 45.4 | | | | 25.3 | | | | 2006 | | 30.3 | | | | 54.3 | | | | 22.9 | | | | 2007 | | 30.4 | | Add Ship | 54 | | Add Ship | 32.6 | | Add Ship | 2008 | | 33.8 | | | | 59.97 | | | | 26.0 | | | | 2009 | | 39.6 | 30.69 | 8.91 | | 45.2 | 22.64 | 22.56 | | 21.7 | 15.4 | 6.3 | | 2010 | | 39.9 | 34.25 | 5.65 | | 48.3 | 24.4 | 23.9 | | 33.4 | 25.0 | 8.4 | | 2011 | | 36.7 | 23.18 | 13.52 | | 45.2 | 24 | 21.2 | | 26.6 | 19.0 | 7.6 | | 2012 | | 36.2 | 30.33 | 5.87 | | 37.9 | 12.6 | 25.3 | | 26.3 | 17.7 | 8.6 | | 2013 | | 20.5 | 39.04 | | | 9.8 | 27.5 | | | 18.3 | 23.6 | | | | | | | 8.4875 | | | | 23.2 | | | | 7.7 | | | | | 47.5275 | | | | 50.8 | | | | 31.36 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | projected | 1745.84 | | projected | 1997.77 | | projected | 1151.77 | | | | pace | | | pace | | | | pace | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | USDA | 40.15 | 1475 | | USDA | 36.84 | 1450 | | USDA | 29.95 | 1100 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Difference | 271 | myn bu | | | 548 | myn bu | | | 52 | myn bu | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 12/5/2013 | | | 297 | | | | 545 | | | | 53 | | | 11/28/2013 | | | 273 | | | | 525 | | | | 47 | | |
So we have Soybean Shipments of 20.5 mmt's or 753.03 myn bushels combined with sales brings the total to 39.04 mmt's or 1,434.07 myn bushels.. ON AVERAGE from the past 4 years we will SHIP all the sales plus another 8.5 mmt's bringing total expected or "Trendline" exports to 1,746 myn bushels.. This year of course we do not have that many beans to ship.. so.. we will not hit trendline. We do have the corn and could hit 1,998 myn bushels or 548 myn bushels more than the USDA has currently forecast as well as the 1,152 of wheat. "fwiw."
Edited by JonSCKs 12/19/2013 17:54
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