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South Central Iowa | It doesn't take guessing. The roll gap filling on the continuous is one of the most reliable things I have seen on the chart. I use an open interest based roll. In corn, it takes an average of 5.4 days and a median of 4 days to fill and it will occur over 96% of the time. The most recent roll gap from U to Z took 8 days and I actually shorted on it and rode part of the way just based on the time of year. I think a volume based chart would behave the same, but have not looked at it. The Option Expiration, First Notice, and Off the Board based continuous rolls would not be as reliable IMO. I believe that OI and Volume represent where the majority of the market is, so when those roll over, the market has a reliable tendency to gravitate back to the positions those participants had. While after those two, the Option Expiration still occurs around the same time those rolls occur and I think that adds strength to the phenomenon.
Like you said, this is not really for farmers. But there is opportunity in the rolling of the continuous and it waits to be exploited! Look at the flat ZCZ17 vs the ZC1!
 (ContCornvsDecCorn.png)
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 ContCornvsDecCorn.png (60KB - 49 downloads)
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If you hedged next years crop, should that make an impact on what you actually grow?
