Well if you hedged KC wheat at let's say $6.00, and given a $.50 under basis for July 18 KC wheat(using local basis for this past harvest, historically .35 under) I would know my selling price, within reason if HTA and then would only have the amount of bushels as a unknown.

If I hadn't hedged any other crop besides wheat, both price and and bushels would be unknown, unless of course I hedged those other crops on the the board ASAP, or take my chances.

I already have half of the revenue equation complete and  the cost structure of competing crops planted next spring could  change  between now and then if not locked in now but I have a pretty good idea of costs to put out an acre of wheat.


Given your example, here is how I look at it:


You know the old saying. "one in the hand, is worth two in the bush."