Okay well then let's look at the past..  Believe it or not.. the dreaded and feared 1980's actually had like 3 droughts.. 80/81 was a doosy.. Like 2011/2012.. the REAL DEAL and one that I remember to this day.  1983 was kind of self induced as high prices from 1981 coupled with good crops led to good yields by 83.. the gov't was crying UNCLE and offered the pik program to cut production.. coupled with ma Nature and the US cut Corn production in HALF!!  

"Whoops."

and we all remember 1988.. well if we're old enough.. uh hum.

In fact.. well hey my good buddy Rich Llewelyn at KSU has data up..  awesome ( http://www.agmanager.info/grain-marketing/grain-supply-and-demand-w... ) 

Okay here we go..

Year  Yield  Harvested Acres  Production  Price

78  101  broke the century mark  woo who!!
79  109.5  cranking now!!
80    90.9  72.9 myn       $3.12  which would be like $12 today.. or some much higher number..  REAL $$$
81  109     74.5              $2.47
82  113.9  72.7  8.235   $2.55
83    81    51.5  4.174    $3.21  cut the crop size in HALF!!  with assistance from Gov't Pik program.. paid to cut acres..
84  106.7  71.8  7.672   $2.63  no worries back on track..
85  118                           $2.23
86  119.4                        $1.50  OUCH!! running out of places to store it!! 85 Farm bill kicking in with Set Asides and managed production.
87  119.8                        $1.94 Yields pop on lower planted/harvested acres.. carry over at 4.882 from 86
88    84.6 58.25 4.929    $2.54  87 Carry out at 4.259 almost as much as the crop..
89  116.3
..
16   174
etc..  Those are the highlights..

"You can observe a lot.. just by watching." 

This cycle has taken longer to bounch back as China has been our Gov't warehouse.

In fact when you look at it.. "It's like deja vu all over again." 

So the CPC is calling for a 70% chance of La Nina... ( http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_disc_oct2016/ensodisc.shtml )

hmmm...