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No Rate Increase Again
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John Burns
Posted 9/22/2016 10:25 (#5542787 - in reply to #5542386)
Subject: RE: No Rate Increase Again



Pittsburg, Kansas

That would work ok as long as we have somewhat stable conditions, work wonderfully if we get into a bout of raging inflation, or could really suck if we go into severe deflation and land prices drop to 40% of what you paid for it.

Why I have been keeping my "ear to the ground" so to speak to try and know slightly ahead of most (if I am really lucky and get it "right") what direction we eventually head. Something is going to happen with the excessive debt load not only the US has but almost all of the developed world has. How this reconciliation of coming to terms with debt that can never be paid comes about could make all the difference in the world as far as investments go.

If we take off with wild inflation, the ones that borrowed out the wazoo will look like geniuses. If we fall off the cliff with deflation and massive defaults on debts then cash will be king and all the deflationists will be saying "I told you so". If we suffer a bout of deflation before finally heading into an inflationary blow off (which is my current "best guess") then the ones that can survive the deflationary portion (not having un-serviceable debt levels) and yet benefit from the inflation (by owning physical assets and using leverage to advantage by paying off loans with cheaper dollars) wil be the biggest winners.

That is what the current monetary system does. It turns investment into a casino where you have to guess right to be a winner. With wild expansion of credit (money supply) followed by contraction (deflation of money supply) it makes ordinary good business investment decisions impossible. Instead it devolves into "what is the Fed going to do". Are we going to have ultra easy money or just easy money? Heaven forbid we should have realistic money rates set by market forces (sarcasm).

John



Edited by John Burns 9/22/2016 10:53
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