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Because of COVID, how many more people do you think will have died by the time 18 months have passed
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dpilot83
Posted 9/15/2020 07:54 (#8496590)
Subject: Because of COVID, how many more people do you think will have died by the time 18 months have passed



It’s a bit of a morbid subject but I believe having a realistic perspective is important for guiding the country and the world going forward.

I believe we are on the tail end of major coronavirus influence (at least from a direct health risk perspective).

If that is true then I believe by August of 2021 we will have had maybe 4.3 million deaths over that 18 month period instead of the normal 4.2 million deaths over the 18 months. So maybe a 2% increase in deaths over the 18 month period in the USA.

Many of those who have sadly passed would have passed in the next 18 months anyway but unfortunately there are some who have died and who will continue to die who would have lived many years. People who were afraid to go to the hospital for heart problems who would have lived another 20 years with care or cancer patients who were caught too late, etc. In the long run those deaths will prove the most consequential.

So that’s my guess, 2% or less increase in expected mortality over an 18 month period.

Edited by dpilot83 9/15/2020 08:24
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