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| If my hypothesis holds true, then the second and third waves for New York will be outside of New York City. If the city does not have second and third waves, but the rest of the state does, it will show the benefit of letting it run its course quickly and intensely. That of course is only true if my assumption is correct that the data is showing that the city has peaked and has herd immunity already. If something happens in the next week that shows deaths and hospitalizations going up dramatically in New York City and no signs of improvement, then I will have to completely reassess my analysis.
I have to kind of chuckle. I get the impression that you are saying to let it run its course with more of a "cowboy up" attitude while I am suggesting we should consider that option with more of a "that would be less painful and save more lives" attitude. Regardless, it looks like we are coming to some of the same conclusions. I am still a bit hesitant in pushing my thoughts too hard until I get more data, but I do understand why so many want to get this over with more quickly. | |
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Has New York CIty COVID peaked?
