I doubt the USDA is much farther off than that most of the time so why all the fuss?

Do you believe these USDA numbers?

Grain Stocks North Dakota 9/1/18  Corn 61 myn bushels

2018 North Dakota Corn Production 448 myn bushels

Therefore Total Supply = 509 myn bushels

Grain Stocks 12/1/18 North Dakota 333 myn bu

Implied Disappearance ( 509 - 333 = ) 176 myn bushels

...

Grain Stocks 9/1/19 ND 46 myn bu

2019 Current ND Corn Crop size 455 (7 myn bu MORE than 2018)

Therefore Total Supply fall of 2019 = 501 myn bushels (8 myn less)

Grain Stocks 12/1/19 ND 430 myn bushels

Implied Disappearance 71 myn bushels.. 105 myn LESS than 2018 despite a Larger Crop..  ???

...

Grain Stocks 3/1/19 ND  246 myn bushels

Grain Stocks 3/1/20 ND 268 myn bushels

Do you believe that ND has 22 million bushels more Corn now vs a year ago?
Despite challenges bringing the crop in.. it is one of the only States to Show a Gain in Stocks Yoy.. Illinois on the other hand showed a 319 myn bu reduction.. and probably had better success harvesting it.



There are similar numbers from other States..

Kansas  2018 Corn Crop 642 myn bushels 3/1/19 Corn Stocks 333 myn bushels

2019 Corn Crop 801 myn bushels 3/1/20 Corn Stocks 359 myn bushels.

In spite of raising 159 Million bushels more.. Implied Disappearance 19/20 vs 18/19 is 135 Million bushels more... ?!?

... after a 24 myn bu gain in stocks yoy.

...

Do you believe these numbers from USDA?