So China did cancel 807 k mt's and Unkown canceled 444 k mt's for this mornings Export SALES report which was during the slow week during New Year's holiday as of 1/3/19.

However, updating the WASDE numbers from what we know..

The US has sales on the Books as of 1/3/19 of 30.38 mmt's.. we still have the REST of January to go.. and remember there was chatter of China BUYING CORN and BUYING Wheat during that time from the US.. we STILL do not KNOW what/if they did.. plus any other soybeans.

As you can see from the Numbers below.. with more and more Estimates of the dryness in Brazil lowering their crop size from the February WASDE number of 117 to 115 to as low as 112 and some lower.. under 110.  And now Paraguay estimates coming in as much as 30% below last years 9.81 mmt crop.. It is CLEAR that South American production is going to be as much as 5 mmt's or MORE below their record output of two years ago.. Remember that the WASDE a year ago was forecasting ARGY production at like 54.. 4 or 5 updates later.. and today last year's ARGY crop was 37.8 mmts.. so there is ALOT of room for the S/Am WASDE ESTIMATES to come down!!

CONAB was out at 115.3 with indications of MORE cuts to come...

http://soybeanandcorn.com/news/Feb13_19-Conab-Lowers-Brazilian-Soybean-Production-3_5-mt-to-115_3-million

In their February Crop Report released on February 12th, Conab lowered their estimate of the 2018/19 Brazilian soybean crop by 3.5 million tons to 115.3 million. They indicated that the reduction was the result of hot and dry weather during December and part of January. They also indicated that the estimate might decline even further in the March Report because the dry weather during January extended past the time that they conducted their survey for the February Report. Their current Brazilian soybean estimate is approximately 4 million tons less than last year (-3.3%).

The 2018/19 Brazilian soybean acreage is estimated at 35.8 million hectares (88.4 million acres), which represents an increase of 1.9% compared to last year. The current nationwide soybean yield is estimated at 3,220 kg/ha (47.6 bu/ac), which is down 5.1% from last year's yield of 3,394 kg/ha (50.2 bu/ac).

Also next door at Paraguay.. their crop "could be down as much as 30%."

http://soybeanandcorn.com/news/Feb14_19-20189-Soy-Production-in-Paraguay-could-be-down-as-Much-as-30

According to data from the Paraguayan Grain and Oilseed Merchandizers and Exporters Association (Capeco), even though the 2018/19 soybean yields in Paraguay have improved as the harvest moved into the later maturing soybeans, they started out so poor that they may end up being down as much as 30% compared to last year.

When the first soybeans were harvested in December, the yields were very low in the range of 1,500 to 1,800 kg/ha (22.2 to 26.6 bu/ac). These early maturing soybeans were severely impacted by hot and dry weather during the last half of November and December when the soybeans were filling pods.

During the month of January as the farmers harvested their medium maturing soybeans, the average yield improved to approximately 2,200 kg/ha (32.5 bu/ac).

Yield reports from early February indicate further improvement in yields, but they are still below the three year average. The rainfall started to improve as the later maturing soybeans were filling pods resulting in the improved yields. It is possible that the average soybean yield might improve a little more as farmers harvest the rest of their later maturing soybeans.

In northern Paraguay, farmers have harvested 80% of their 2018/19 soybeans and yields are down as much as 30% to 40%. In some areas, the last significant rainfall was at the end of November. Average soybean yields in northern Paraguay are in the range of 33 to 41 sacks per hectare (29 to 36 bu/ac).

Overall, Capeco is expecting that the Paraguayan soybean production might be down as much as 30% from last year when the country produced approximately 10 million tons of soybeans. In their February WASDE Report, the USDA lowered their estimate of the 2018/19 Paraguayan soybean crop to 9.5 million tons compared to their estimate of 9.8 million tons in December.

As these estimates are revised lower.. and yes ARGY could be higher this year.. vs 55.. Also Chinese imports may still be lowered from 88 mmt's.  But still the US will be the holder of STOCKS and those customers displaced by China's purchases by it's PRIVATE companies of almost ALL of South America's stocks.. "it has to come from somewhere.."

.. and the US is that source. even with the WASDE number at 51.71 mmt's.. I still believe that number climbs.. 3..5..8 mmt's.
We still have 34 + weeks to go.. and the NORMAL supply out of South America is COMMITTTED and SHRINKING.. on paper..  DOWN 13 mmt's to the REST of the WORLD.  The US will get ALOT of this business.. imho.

ALSO note the GROWING amount of IMPORTS INTO South America..