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S Illinois | Their data collection is mathematical based and the data they collected from that field was not to show what your single field would make, but rather it is a single data point in their collection model. What their model takes into account is the historical deviation normally seen by the field observations compared to final yields. Single data points like that will always have high deviation.
In that field, they had 2plots each consisting of 2 rows 15’ long. Their measurements consist of number of ears and size of those ears and then take away harvest loss seen in their small plot. Unlike crop insurance adjusters, they don’t need to know about that drowned out area or thin stand area that cause the lowering of field averages.
Think of it like when deciding what hybrids to plant. How accurate would it be and would you base your decision off a 10ft section of a single plot?
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USDA fall estimate vs. actual yield (field in the "survey")
