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South Central Iowa | If we want to get real out in the weeds with prognostications here would be my doomsday:
Recession begins over 4Q ‘19 to 2Q ‘20. Dow drops back under 15,000, threatens 10,000. Unemployment grows to 8% pre-election.
Democrats have 22 declared candidates for president, and with no Clinton or Biden type, they have no clear leader. They go to convention with no candidate securing majority and 3-5 competing. Ugly convention yields a compromise that pisses off 20% of the party, like the Bernie wing. Come the election, 4% goes with the Green Party candidate, a la Ralph Nader, and Trump eeks out a re-election. Democrats grow house majority, fail to capture senate. They are absolutely livid at the prospect of 4 years of Trump and the Congress grinds to a complete halt, even more than today.
All the while, we grew another record crop in 2019, and another in 2020. Our price dips with the market, the board never sees a high above $3.40 or $8.50 in the 2020 growing season and drops to $2.35 and $5.91 on the board as the harvest low in October. Going into the winter it’s a bloodletting. The Congress is enthralled in the political gridlock. The economy begins to worsen in January 2021 on this paralysis, Dow at 10K, U3 at 11% and growing. Spring price comes in for new crop at $6.72 soy and $2.98 corn.
At that point, in winter/spring 2021, the Sword of Damocles would drop. The government couldn’t even function, the economy in tatters, and no one would be coming to rescue us or our small rural Ag lenders. That’s when acres would go idle and it would be because horrible things were happening. | |
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Post trade deal (if)
