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Central Missouri | I learned it from Rulon. Take the last 100 years of the grains. There are roughly 3 time periods. Each one of those periods grains traded in a wide range. Look at 1970-1996. Range was 1.50 - 4.00. Look at how many times price went into the upper part of the range and stayed there. How long did it stay each time. Then look at how many times it went to the lower end and how long it stayed there.
The market tells you a lot right there. Now look at current times. Top of range has been set at 8.00. Bottom hasn’t been set yet. Not gonna explain how I arrived at. 2.60 as it’s not my data it’s a calculation off of the 1970-1996 range. Look at how much time price has gone down now since the high. It’s becoming time for that to change but no one knows which crop year it will do it but it will happen. In the 1950,s it took 8 years. After the 1973 high it took 7 years. It’s coming don’t know which year. The key is what you do when price gets back up toward the highs. Most will go to sleep or spend way too much to avoid taxes.
The low off of the next high is when I think we get into the 2.60 futures range on corn. You don’t have to be a victim of those prices if you market correctly when the highs come. | |
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