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Central Missouri | Century your chart confirmed 90% of what I said as to range of price. Rulon has told me nothing about the 1950,s and in my post in that paragraph I didn’t mention him nor allude that the 1950 info came from him. What I said was that in the 1950,s it took 8 years. That was a bit off as I was pulling that from my memory. In corn the nearby futures topped on 12-10-1951 which set a new upper limit of that eras price range. It wasn’t until 9 years later that the corn market bottomed on 11-21-1960. It then took roughly 6 years to get a 50% retrace net of that range. Very different dynamic than the 70-88 market and different than the 1950’s bean dynamic where the high was set in 56 I think, I can’t find a chart from 45-56, the beans then bottomed on 11-21-59. By 4-26-61 they had retraced 95% of their decline. Corn and beans acted very different from each other in the 50,s.
I’m glad you posted your chart to confirm my range of price topic. Thx!
If you look at the average price of corn for each area on centuries chart you can get a good idea in my mind what a good sale is today. The average price in the first range is .70 and it went up to 1.22 in the next time period which is 43%. The next time period it went up to 2.27 which is 46% over the 1.22. Then it says 4.00 which is 43% over the 2.27 if all my math is correct. So if a guy can average over 4 bucks over the next 15 years he is probably doing well. If you throw in a big high or two over those 15 years and you sell multiple years at say 5-6 maybe 7 if lucky I suspect one would be doing quite well.
Edited by ehoff 1/23/2019 13:24
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