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EC SoDak | I’ve put a little thought into this whole predicament....
Whether we want to believe the USDA or not, it’s amazing what more marginal acres (marginal when compared to some of the best and deep dirt in the world) can do with the right rain. I Farm in 2 counties, Brookings and Moody. To set up the story, I liken Moody more like southern MN and Brookings like the ground north of the southern 2 rows (ish). Moody tends to have more consistent soils, rain, and yields. Where as Brookings tends to be more variable on all fronts (still a good performer though). Last year, Brookings beat Moody (slightly) but kept pace with Moody in 2016(215 vs 225 for country averages). But, pre 2015, Brookings was more of an upper 160s to mid 170s county average area. This county needed lots of tile (and court cases) to make it work better, at least near me.
So, what I’m getting at, if some of those good but “marginal” (by southern MN standards) MN acres in MN got the right rains, they likely could see 50-70+ bushel gains as BigCorn has alluded to. As with human nature, when things are bad we likely over exaggerate/assume when things are bad. I’m struggling with it myself with drownouts and N loss and how it’ll actually work out for final yields.
While I think 191 or whatever the USDA put out might be a touch lofty, I don’t think that because southern MN flooded means the state has to be horrible.
Personally, I’d find a number close to where the market is at if you’ll need money and sell/hedge. The belt was way ahead GDUs until grain fill for many and leveled off since, telling me their was a cooldown at the right time for the most part. On maps, it seemed a lot of heat through the whole season was in the NW belt and y’all know what us boys in the Tundra say when we have added heat and moisture..... (yes, some areas have lacked moisture and I feel bad for you).
In my back yard (which was flooded twice and overly wet mid June-mid July) I’m starting to see some good yields, especially if fill finishes well). Just a word of caution..... I used to feel good about strong yields here until I realized that if yields are good here, they tend to be good in most areas elsewhere.
I guess take it as you will...
Edited by SoDak Farms 8/17/2018 13:22
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Minnesotas best corn counties
