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| Hi 555,
Ok..I am gonna try one more time to get through to you. Take off your farmers cap a bit and put your beliefs aside. There is very very little I am 100 pct about. But there is one thing that I am dead certain about, and that is that fundamentals as farmers know it - DO NOT MATTER. I take a lot of heat for that - yet I have never wavered. We as farmers believe a drought causes prices to go up...yet nothing is farther from the truth. You could have the worst drought in history, and if buyers are not willing to pay more, price will NOT go up. Maybe they found another substitute...maybe its tariffs, or currencies issues, but just because there is a drought - price does NOT have to rally. Likewise, if the prez slaps a 1000% tariff on beans and the buyers are still willing to pay more - price isn't going to 4 no matter how many times numbers tells us they are. Those are tough pills, but they are the gods honest truth, and to read a chart effectively, you are gonna have to man up and swallow hard. So we use simple markers to help us understand what the players are doing...FACT buyers were willing to pay more.....FACT Sellers are willing to sell for less. It eliminates the why and supplies the what.
Now on corn for instance, I gave you the lines in March. You needed nothing else. I walked you through how to read them, and all you had to do was print off the chart, and plot price weekly and ask simple questions. What is price's job and has it done it? We knew that price should make a higher high because it made a higher low last year....again...we knew that price should make a higher high because price made a higher low last year, not because of acres, not because of the weather, not because of exports, feed use or anything else, and we had a sloped line as marker that we knew that every time price failed to reach the line in the past it lead to a lower low. So what happened? Price missed the upper line which was expected. If it had exceeded it or touched it, it would have illustrated a different level of energy and thus the outcome down here likely would be different. But the fact is it missed the line...Remember this summer when JC was trying to buy beans and I posted the chart with "Price: I am weaker this time on it"? Well corn was screaming at you "I AM WEAKER THIS TIME". So it rolls over and surprise surprise it went through the lower line. All you had to do was watch the follow along and you would have known there was issues....not issues because of tariffs...not issues because of acres...not issues because of the weather...you just knew there was an issue. So price has a remaining job to do.....make lower lows. Will it do it? I have my opinions but I will let price tell me because IT HAS BIG IMPLICATIONS FOR NEXT YEAR. If we fail,....we have a saying, "failures spawn the biggest moves", and whether it does or not will help me start to assemble a plan for next year which I guarantee you will be more difficult than this year.
Everything is in price, it is not random and there is NEVER an accident.
Take Care | |
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I’m afraid Ag Talk makes people bad marketers...
