SE ND | donmoffat - 8/10/2018 01:59
Just for curiosity a 3.10 or whatever low a couple years ago and trading above that this long what chart do u use for a downtrend ? Daily ? Weekly? Monthly?
Again I ask when do we ever get in a big bull market with u guys? We’re does it have to go or do so I can have my orders in for the long side ! Cause I ain’t shorting it here will at 6 bucks when the charts are bullish
Edit bull
By a "big bull market" are you talking new all time highs? If so, I hate to tell you but IMHO that is a long long time from now. I'm in my early 30's and I wouldn't be shocked if it didn't happen till I'm 50. If you are talking a pullback rally then that changes things quite a bit. In which case, I'd say it is most likely to happen the next couple years. This is why I and others have been saying how important we feel it is to take advantage of these rallies that will be coming, because we know how painful it is when price is down here.
In corn, you're right on price trading above the lows...atleast for now. Z8 corn continues to make new lows. Beans continue to make new lows as well.
The charts are lightyears ahead of any fundamentals. I used to be a fundamentalist myself, but I can say without a doubt that the charts will signal the turn before any fundamental reason is known. That doesn't mean that the two are clashing with each other. There will most likely be a "fundamental" reason given for the rally, but where it goes is going to measured by price action on the chart. This past spring was a perfect example of just what I'm talking about. Price rallied back to structure where sellers had confirmed (beans). Their job was to make new lows from that pivot and they did so. Didn't matter what the news about Argentina or Brazil was, price had suggested it was going lower and it did exactly that.
If you're going to wait for the fundamentals to be what you feel they need to be to get bullish. You're half way done with the move.
I understand that you don't see it the same way I do, and that is fine. I played the fundamentals game for many years and I couldn't get it to work. Hopefully, you can. |
I’m afraid Ag Talk makes people bad marketers...
