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I’m afraid Ag Talk makes people bad marketers...
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J P
Posted 8/11/2018 08:23 (#6923576 - in reply to #6923519)
Subject: RE: I’m afraid Ag Talk makes people bad marketers...


JC STONE - 8/11/2018 07:59

Ok , so a week ago you had a bean chart drawn with probability of advancing to the uml. Tried to bring it up , was unsuccessful bout on page 4.
Okay obviously were not going there now. Headed for lml.
So we didn't know until yesterday where it would head. Obvious now that the move is almost over.


Hi JC,
Yep. That chart was in reference to an OP talking about the 62% retrace and had just bought calls or something if I remember correctly. The fork gave him markers that he could use to read price both ways. I just stated the probabilities that it zoomed the ML. I also stated in the same thread:

"Now....just to be clear, I am not predicting anything. Pretty ugly market structure in the area and it's going to be a huge victory for price to achieve the UML. And personally I doubt it will but I again will let the probabilities and price tell me.."

JC...context is King and why my sig line reads "Lines are cool but market structure rules." You take the same fork, put it in a different set of market structure and it goes to WL2. But in this case, the fork was a pendulum fork in a down trend - so it's job in life was to gauge the relative strength of the pullback that just happened to get zoomed into the last place that sellers were willing to sell for less. FACT: They were there. So price goes vertical into those sellers - backed by a zoom zone which we talked about since then in another thread and about how they will be there.  So while everybody was getting bulled up the facts were that price had just come back to the last place the sellers confirmed.  They made a lot of money the last time they sold it there....why wouldn't they sell it again?  So price tested the ML, and .....fizzle.  Started grinding back through the line and you just knew - report be damned, sellers were there, and the rest is history.  Now, the job again of this swing is to make new lows.  Will they? I think so.  Never thought the lows were in, and to be honest, think 770 is a realistic area before it's all said and done. But that is my opinion, I will use my tools and let price decide for sure.

Hope that helps.

Hey...BTW, did you know that the great doctor used median lines on indicators?  He did a lot of work on them and you know what?  The probabilities are the same.  That should make you warm and fuzzy..   :-)

 

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