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US Ethanol policy under Seige??
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JonSCKs
Posted 4/21/2018 12:38 (#6722833 - in reply to #6722809)
Subject: Ethanol update.


The Ethanol blend rate has slipped this week to 9.3% which is LOWER than Last year's 9.46%  Suspect that the WAIVERS are having an ADVERSE IMPACT upon the Domestic Blend Rate..  Edit add:  although the ramp up to the summer driving season is choppy right now..  bumping the numbers around a bit.

Ethanol production fell again this week.  Implied Ethanol Exports remain strong up a healthy clip vs Last year which is what is absorbing the increased production.

          Computed          
 Weekly Production      number to balanceComputedActualTotal Weekly bu  Weekly US  
Week Blenders InputImportsStocksCapacityResidual and exportsExportsExportsEthanolGrindMonthlyYearSupplied Finished 
 Ethanol k bbls/dayk bbls /dayk bbls /day k bbls k bbls k bbls /dayk bblsMonthlyEIAdemand  myn buMotor Gasoline 
        37,936       2.85conversion Ethanol as % of
9/1/20171060 923 0 21,11656% 163.7 1146  1086.7109,347  916310.07% 
9/8/20171047 901 36 21,13256% 179.7 1258  1080.7108,006  96199.37% 
9/15/20171033 898 0 21,13856% 134.1 939  1032.1106,562  94419.51% 
9/22/2017996 917 0 20,74055% 135.9 951  1052.9102,745  95229.63% 
9/29/20171010 930 0 21,54557% -35.0 -24540492,063895.0104,189  924110.06% 
10/6/2017967 937 0 21,52357% 33.1 232  970.199,754  94809.88% 
10/13/20171019 922 0 21,48057% 103.1 722  1025.1105,118  913610.09% 
10/20/20171039 925 0 21,03455% 177.7 1244  1102.7107,181  93149.93% 
10/27/20171056 930 0 21,47457% 63.1 44226402,231993.1108,935  94619.83% 
11/3/20171057 918 35 21,34556% 192.4 1347  1110.4109,038  94969.67% 
11/10/20171054 918 0 21,49757% 114.3 800  1032.3108,728  917210.01% 
11/17/20171074 920 0 21,89758% 96.9 678  1016.9110,792  95959.59% 
11/24/20171066 922 0 22,04458% 123.0 861368626481045.0109,966  872410.57% 
12/1/20171108 885 36 22,54459% 187.6 1313  1072.6114,299  88959.95% 
12/8/20171089 916 0 22,37459% 197.3 1381  1113.3112,339  909110.08% 
12/15/20171077 914 0 22,32059% 170.7 1195  1084.7111,101  94269.70% 
12/22/20171090 946 0 22,03158% 185.3 1297  1131.3112,442  94859.97% 
12/29/20171032 855 0 22,61960% 93.0 65158374130948.0106,459  86509.88% 
1/5/2018996 795 0 22,71960% 186.7 1307  981.7102,745  88149.02% 
1/12/20181061 856 0 22,74360% 201.6 1411  1057.6109,451  86689.88% 
1/19/20181062 826 0 23,80063% 85.0 595  911.0109,554  86979.50% 
1/26/20181040 858 0 23,04561% 289.9 2029534221041147.9107,284  90449.49% 
2/2/20181057 868 0 23,48962% 125.6 879  993.6109,038  91109.53% 
2/9/20181016 882 0 22,88560% 220.3 1542  1102.3104,808  90599.74% 
2/16/20181068 885 0 22,75360% 201.9 1413  1086.9110,173  90029.83% 
2/23/20181044 876 0 22,97961% 135.7 9504784 1011.7107,697  88609.89% 
3/2/20181052 894 0 23,14461% 134.4 941  1028.4108,522  92769.64% 
3/9/20181025 910 0 24,28164% -47.4 -332  862.6105,737  96429.44% 
3/16/20181049 916 0 23,75863% 207.7 1454  1123.7108,213  93249.82% 
3/23/20181039 900 0 22,79060% 277.3 1941  1177.3107,181  92089.77% 
3/30/20181038 903 0 22,42559% 187.1 13105314 1090.1107,078  92039.81% 
4/6/20181034 904 0 21,84658% 212.7 1489  1116.7106,665  92739.75% 
4/13/20181009 917 0 21,34456% 163.7 1146  1080.7104,086  98579.30% 
                      
17/18 MY 32 wks1044.4 899.0 3.2 22238.059% 148.4 1039.04521.72635.21047.4107,734  9210.59.76% 
16/17 MY 32 wks1020.7 894.7 0.0 20762.855% 116.9 818.13599.02686.51011.6105,296  9030.89.91% 
                2,438.3     
17/18 vs 16/172.3% 0.5%   23034.0yr ago 27.0% 27.0%25.6%-1.9%3.5%2.3%  2.0%-1.5% 




Weekly production number http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=w_epooxe_yop_nus_mbbld&f=w

Weekly Blenders Input.. http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=w_epooxe_yir_nus_mbbld&f=w

Weekly Imports of Ethanol http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=W_EPOOXE_IM0_NUS-Z00_MBBLD&f=W

Weekly Stocks number http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=W_EPOOXE_SAE_NUS_MBBL&f=W

Weekly US Product Supplied of Finished Motor Gasoline http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WGFUPUS2&f=W

Monthly US Exports of Ethanol http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=M_EPOOXE_EEX_NUS-Z00_MBBL&f=M

 

Cheers. 


Edited by JonSCKs 4/21/2018 13:07
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