All fair points. What I was attempting with the post was to see whether there would even be any motive in the trial of farmers v. insurance companies/RMA 2014. If someone took volume/OI data and said that the rally caused a $7bn difference in crop valuation, which cost $7bn in cash to deploy with high risk to that capital when de-leveraging the position, I will happily take off my tinfoil hat.

If looking at the data, the answer is that it only took $25 or $50m in options/futures purchases to change payouts by around $2bn, it would be downright anti-capitalist for such an investment to be ignored by the AIPs and their reinsurers who have a lot at stake. All in all a question that might have an answer in bit of data I do not have, but figured that some folks on here might be able to access.