Simply put you have described Risk Management.  Each of us decides how much risk we are willing to take on each transaction of our Business.  Yes Business not Hobby or Second Job.  Predicting markets is Impossible.  Occasionally one gets Lucky.  But most time it happens at random, so many variable make it  impossible.  Just like now in the Beef Markets, the death loss in the Swine industry has pushed our markets.  That alone will cause an adjustment somewhere in the future.  This is just a poker game and today the steaks are higher than we have ever played.  I accepted years ago that an up rising market can never hurt the actual producer.  That rule can be wrong, but the producer would actually have to do something like forward contract to violate that basic rule.  Thus, Put Options allow the top to be open so the market can run.  Each turn is different and use and understanding the words Risk Management is the key.  Making marketing decisions is just part of the game, each of us have the opportunity for them to help or hurt us.  This is part of the fun.   Use of livestock futures market by individuals has been very low over the years,  good to see the interest.