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Alton, Ia | You are all assuming windfall profits. The price is sky high because pigs are dying faster than they can be born. So if you are farrow to finish, you are making good profit, UNLESS you happen to break with PED, at which point your output goes to zero, nothing, for a month or more. LH futures could be $500 then, big deal, nothing to sell.
And if you are buying iso weans, be prepared to pay $100 or more for 12 lb. squealers. About 40% of the finished hog value is in the first 10-12 pounds right now. 40%. Think about how that hurts, if or when your finisher now breaks with PED, PRRS, HPS, or any of the other myriad of diseases pigs like to die from. Doesn't take much death loss to turn black into red.
And then, finding pigs. Unless you have a contract that nobody breaks, you'll be taking any crappy feed eaters you can find. Maybe a barn full, maybe not. So if you're not full, your breakeven takes a hit.
Even at $40 profit, given a $200+ value fat hog, one dead takes 5 penmates to make up. I hate it when that happens.
And then what the hell happens when PED virus actually works? Look out below.
I think all hog producers would rather live without it. | |
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127 for Hogs
