Death comes to us all. Life's but a walking shadow | I assume from your projected production of 13.781 billion bushels you anticipate a harvested acreage of 84.6 million acres. The average yield for the last twelve years has been 148.8 bushels per acre with a standard deviation of 9.9 bushel per acres . 84.6 times 148.8 bushels per acre is 12.84 billion bushel not 13.78.
Simple statistics clearly indicates that the probability that the yield will equal 163.1 or larger is approximately 7.5%. If you eliminate the 2012 yield of 123 bushel per acre because it is clearly an anomaly the probability that we will have a yield of 163.1 bushel per acre or more falls to 2.5%. Similarly the same statistics indicate that there is a 95% probability that the yield next year will be between 136.6 and 161.1 bushels per acre or using your harvested acre number, 11.6 to 13.6 billion bushel.
However I do sincerely appreciate the effort your firm has made to collect this data and make it available to us.
And for what it's worth I do agree that more beans will likely be planted this coming year. I, myself will likely go from a 40:60 beans to corn to 50:50 ratio if not higher. |
Planted Acreage Survey
