Beanies seem a little high (??) but other than that.. lines up pretty well with my biases.. (right or wrong..??)


I argued all winter for pulling back on the corn acres.. which shows up on your forecast.. now with the rally and a little better outlook.. do we see corn acres creep back up..??  You guys found the E Cornbelt holding back and going to the beanies..  Yet the Eastern Cornbelt can ship out all winter.. vs the West and specifically the NW.. so.. what do we need?  Beans or Corn or Corn for ethanol exports...???


First remember that Double Crop beanies.. a big factor as the percentage of planted beans after wheat has varied from 3 to 10% of the crop (if memory serves me correctly..  http://talk.newagtalk.com/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=450914&posts=6#M3657369  Yes.. 3% in 2010 vs 10% last year..)  So if wheat acres are down in the Soy D/C area's.. ???  might put the brakes on a little bit of that expansion... ???  It's been a cold winter.. wheat is gonna come off late here.. which WILL at least hit D/C yields (pushed back later into the what's left of a growing season.. bye bye yield.. if we even can get it in..???  Do you plant beanies after July 4th..???  Note to reader 67% of my beans are double crop..)


Next concern is that with S Am beanies coming out late.. we'll probably need beanies later here also.. more into storage.. so.. NOT quibbling with the Transportation challenged north.. Dakota's.. sounds like a good area to expand the beanies there..  build some more bins.. harvest and ship over the rockies.. on that new double track BNSF line going west (correct BNSF?  http://farmprogress.com/story-bnsf-promises-fix-rail-shipping-delays-9-108937 )

We might need the eastern cornbelt to shore up the corn acres as..

I think our up trend on the corn is flattening on the expanded acres..  We'll find out March 31st if we REALLY did 158.8 last year.. (seriously..??? as we're about 200 myn bushels short on the stocks..??  Or where they undercounted...???)

Note that the WASDE lowered the NASS planted acres by 2 myn total for 2013.  This data shows a 19 myn acreage gain from 06 to 13...

I highlight some of the key points.. (of course that would change when they update to match WASDE..??)

Also note that updates change acreage.. so.. not 100% sure but.. "close enough." 

Now this isn't all the states.. I condensed it down mostly to the states that USDA reports grain stocks on.. (added NY for 1234 though..;-)

Also of note.. 4 of the 6 largest acreage gainers are in the Plains states.. ND, NE, SD and Ks..  "just say'in"

I think this bolsters my argument about a flattening of the yield gains.. (other than NE) those acreage gainers are NOT top end yielders..

http://talk.newagtalk.com/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=450914&posts=6#M3657369

Corn Acreage by State since 2004.. from below..

 but "I could be wrong." 


edit add: of course if you cut acreage BACK in the Dakota's.. that would add to the national AVERAGE trend yield... ??  yipper.. should.. hmmm...