If your looking at around 80 myn acres of Soybean planted acreage potential.. and the Double Crop component of that swings around from 3% in 2010 to 10% in 2013.. and prices are LOWER.. Costs are HIGHER.. and the Wheat Crop is LATER.. does that 7% swing in acres..


80 myn x .10 (2013)  = 8 myn  planters ROLL

  OR

80 myn x .03 (2010) = 2.4 wheat crop comes out too late.. it rains.. or flat out doesn't pencil.. - 8 =  5.6 million acres SWING as Double Crop.. 

That's a pretty big fudge factor!!!


I don't hear a lot of commentators talking about this...  ???   Do they even know about the Double crop component or are they just looking at numbers..???

Seems pretty relevant to me   that the Whole Double Crop Soybeans could swing give or take a Sorghum crop...  


just pointing that out.  Who knows?  Maybe we hit 12% this year.. as most of it depends upon weather going forward.. not even sure my historical weather with 20/20 hindsight is too good.. ???  lol..  


My point:  Again 2/3rd's of our beanies are irrigated double crop.. at $14 beanies.. I'll buy a D/C beany lottery ticket.. We can hit 50 bu if things go right.. or 20.. if they don't.. plantings after about June 28 drop off on yield potential pretty quick.. Maize's Yield Cliff.. (so how late up there maize?) 

Anywho.. with beanies projected to hit..??  $10 or less.. "eh" on the whole concept... "here."   Dryland D/C acres probably have lower costs.. but also face the yield cliff as you go north...   "just say'in."