It's even more impressive when I figured it off Sept 1st stocks of 729..

They upped it to 821 as of the last report.. that narrows the miss from 179 to...    82.


Too bad the trade doesn't agree with me... ;-)


give them time.   


edit add: golly can't sleep thinking about this.. I used a 13,686 crop.. at that time we were JUST STARTING to come out of the drought as we got 15" of precip LH July FH August..  and that probably added...???  Maybe 30 to 50 myn bushels to Ks production.. anywho..  USDA is still at 13,925.. AND they printed USEAGE of 4,334 where I used 3,620.

http://www.ers.usda.gov/datafiles/Feed_Grains_Yearbook_Tables/US_Supply_and_Disappearance/FGYearbookTable04Full.pdf

Again 4,334 is MASSIVE.. on WHAT?!?  

The previous record was 4,103 back in Q1 10/11 primarily on the strength of the ethanol grind.. Q1 F&R then was only 2,069 and they got It CLEAR UP to 2,426.. this year..  Ethanol grind was 1,582 (F,A&I) vs 1,561 this year.. exports.. 452 then vs 347 now...


Either they OVER Estimated the crop.. OR they undercounted the Stocks..  I just don't see HOW we can be that far off...    


http://talk.newagtalk.com/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=449211&posts=19#M3638354


Maybe a little of both but..???  Something doesn't add...