Death comes to us all. Life's but a walking shadow | JonSCKs showed us how useful the weekly export data basis was as a way of understanding the dynamic of export sales and shipments. It can be a little hard to follow so I have taken the liberty of charting his table. The important points to remember is that cancellation of advanced sales or booked sales are generally much smaller than eventual shipments & many cancellations are rebooked as next years sales (which are not presented here but are recorded in the export sales report). In Jon's data of previous years the true cancellations get adjusted in the additional export number and accounted for.
Also his 2013 projected additional export shipments is the average of the additional exports from previous years including 2012 so should be a conservative measure of this additional exports. I put a black arrow where the USDA projects this years total exports.
edit: Note to Jon, I didn't take out the 2 mmt of most recent soybean cancellations that you suggested because I think you have already been quite conservative with your additional sales projection and SA has only just begun harvest. It will be some good while before SA beans will come to export.
Edited by 1234 1/28/2014 19:32
 (soybean exporfs by 1-16-14.pdf-page-001.jpg)
 (corn exports as of 1-16-14 .pdf-page-001.jpg)
 (wheat exports as of 1-16-14 .pdf-page-001.jpg)
Attachments
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 soybean exporfs by 1-16-14.pdf-page-001.jpg (34KB - 38 downloads)
corn exports as of 1-16-14 .pdf-page-001.jpg (43KB - 39 downloads)
wheat exports as of 1-16-14 .pdf-page-001.jpg (37KB - 58 downloads)
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JonSCKs' weekly export data visualized.
