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This was on Machinery Talk
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99MAX
Posted 1/29/2014 12:34 (#3645592 - in reply to #3644447)
Subject: RE: This was on Machinery Talk



Stearns County, Minnesota

Cyclone96 - 1/28/2014 21:51 Not to say it will not happen. But this was written Dec 6. TITN was $15.06, today it was $17.06. Volume of earnings day was huge, but it has been pretty flat the last 6 weeks. Also, seems a lot of other broker/advisor's don't share his view. It looks like his prediction comes from a computer model he is trying to sell advice from (I like numbers and generally follow them). It also appears he is treating Titan Machinery, a retailer and service provider, the same as CNH, CAT and DEERE, the manufacturers for his analysis. Troubles ahead for Titan, yes, just like everyone in crop production business. But I am not sure the data is being analyzed in a retail environment versus a manufacturing environment. Nor do I know if his data diagnosis is any good. His website for his stockdiagnostics,com looks pretty suspect (cheap). This is a Mark Gold, Jerry Gulke, John Roach, of the stock market trying to sell advice. Just my 2 cents.

Where I see a problem for Titan, down the road, is the way machinery is priced.  What I mean by this, is that the manufacturers, Deere, CNH, and CAT, have had some very good years.  They have raised the price of machinery 8-10% a year for the last few years.  Titan was out there trading very aggressively and has a lot of high priced used machinery.  So the slow down comes and the manufacturers, as listed above, are going to try and keep their manufacturing lines going, so they will  come with additional discounts to move the new machines.  This will put Titan in a bind because they have too much money in the used.  The used machinery is always determined by the price of new.  So when the manufacturers drop their prices on new, it will make Titan's used machinery much lower in value.  It is said that Titan has 800 used combines, and if these are $200,000 a piece, this is $160 million worth of used combines on the lot, plus tractors and other implements.  If the used drops 10%, Titan will lose $16 million on combines alone.  If they are priced 20% too high, they will lose $32 million on combines alone.  If their net profit on total sales is 0.5 %, it will take them a long time to recover these losses.  If their net profits on total sales were 5%, their recovery could be made in 1/10th of the time.  Their problem is they are not making profit on total sales and this is why they are headed for serious problems.

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