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Mascoutah, Illinois | What is your opinion on the following math?
In 2011, the final yield estimate for corn was 147.2 nationally
In 2012, the final yield estimate for corn was 123.4
Let's look at where we are today.
The last USDA Report pegged us at 154.4 nationally on 87.4 million harvested acres which equates to a crop of 13.495 billion bushels.
Here is the scenario:
Can this heat dome take 5% off of this crop before it is harvested? If so, our 154.4 now falls to 146.7.
Is harvested acres really going to be 87.4? From what some are touting, this number is probably going to be 85 million.
So here we are based on these numbers:
The August USDA Report is still touting 13.495 billion bushels.
If the above is true with a 5% loss and harvested acres at 85.0 million, we end up with 146.7 at 85 million harvested which equates to a crop of 12.470 billion bushels.
In your opinion, is the USDA going to miss this one by ONE BILLION bushels because the data is lagging?
The market bottomed for the time being at $4.46 in the December contract. What is the upside if we come in a billion bushels lower than the last Report? | |
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Could the USDA be 1 BILLION bushels over???
