This is not directed specifically at you khall, but just a general observation. All the talk of "taper" or of the Fed unwinding its position really boils down to one question. The Fed is currently buying something like 90% of all treasury issuance all durations. If the Fed quits buying, who is going to replace those lost purchases? Does the government quit spending so much so less is needed? (balanced budget) Does China buy lots more? (they have been divesting net US debt obligations, although slowly) Japan? (they also recently have been net reducing US debt holdings) Russia? (LOL) US citizens? Stock market selling and transferring to bonds? Interest rates spike up enough to entice some of the above (or others) to buy? Who fills the gap when the Fed leaves the market? THAT is the 64 thousand dollar question. John |