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No QE? No more bull markets
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John Burns
Posted 8/21/2013 20:30 (#3280935 - in reply to #3280187)
Subject: Re: No QE? No more bull markets



Pittsburg, Kansas

Is the Fed evil no matter what? Well depends on your definition of evil.

Do I think they do more damage than good? yes. Do I think they are the creator of our monetary problems instead of our savior? yes

I think if you look at all the bailouts and the Feds actions rather than their words, it is evident their first obligation is to their member banks, not the economy. Their first order of business is to maintain the banking system.

You may disagree, but that is the way I see it and my opinion.

I guess my point is that a person held in very high regard in the bond market (manages one of the largest bond funds in the world) is saying:

"Gross: 3 to 4 percent credit growth can’t produce much more than 3-4 percent increases in asset prices. No more QE's? No more bull markets."

I think he is someone worth paying attention to. Do I think QE and the MBS buying should stop? Absolutely, but then I think it should have never started. I'm not saying it should continue, just pointing what a person in a position to have good knowledge about the situation is saying about the potential results when it stops.

I think that is information worth knowing from a reliable source. That is my main point.

QE has to eventually stop. Either that or we do end up in hyperinflation. That is a mathematical certainty. Bank excess reserves and the Fed's balance sheet can not continue on at the current pace of expansion in perpetuity. We surely can agree on that. So the question is, "when do they stop it?". When the market forces the issue? Or voluntarily? And if voluntarily, when? I say when the TBTF banks can withstand the strain would be a good bet.

John



Edited by John Burns 8/21/2013 20:32
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