"Simply put it (the basis) is the price that makes grain move. If there's not enough coming to market it gets stronger and attracts it from further away. If there's lots on offer it gets weaker. It is very erratic right now because of the inverted old crop market. It won't be pleasant when this gets 'normal' again."

http://talk.newagtalk.com/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=409520&posts=19#M3265575


okay..   "basis will follow the spreads" fair enough..

Cash is "sticky" would you agree with that statement...?? given that we STILL have a +103 National average Basis..  And I agree that given time Basis will return to historical norms..  One would think that with Sept Futures coming into delivery "soon" that would Force a convergence..  (but I've thought that before..) 

And there's two components to that basis.. 1) Cash coming down.. which we've tried... OR 2) the board coming up...   Those who are short the board are soon going to have to buy out.. OR deliver.. aka..find grain in a market that is a lot higher...  That's certainly a cliff alright.. but instead of falling off it.. those guys have to climb it..


am I wrong?  "I could be.."