Nebraska aka the boondocks | Well, at some point in the near future, rain won't matter much, and then we will look at beans. At some point, rain on the beans, won't make a hill of beans difference, long before the combines role. If the bean crop is also fiaso, I think that will provide good support for corn going into next year, and cause corn to have to really fight for acres. This drought, IMO, will be the bridge to 2014. Originally, there was talk of a drop in commodities and then a ramping up, well, the drought put a stop to that. I guess I am of the crowd that believes all this funny money will come home to roost, and lets say that happens in late 14, early 2015, these prices may look low. As far as ethanol, if these guys can just break even here, eventually the economy will gain some headway and crude will march higher. One might also ask themselves, is this hot dry period a blip or a trend? Has been dry for almost a year now, what if this is another 1997-2004 type period except farther east? Perhaps the time has come to think about this "just in time/fed ex" grain business, perhaps having a reserve isn't such a bad idea, and penalizing farmers for raising abundant crops pricewise isn't the best economic model.
The other thing that will be interesting, is if this dryness continues, will the "free market" crowd allow the market to work, or will there be interference in the grain markets by the gov't? Get farmers off the public dole, and then whoops, put them back on, can't have a run away free market, lol. This coming winter will definitely be interesting times.
Edited by McHusker 7/10/2012 13:26
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PFG Best black swan?
