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| I'm only as far behind the curve as the USDA is considering the model was exactly spot on for maize at 146 bu/ac which was at the bottom of the trade range. So I may be lagging reality, but less than the average trade estimate.
(I'll take any argument that says USDA is behind the curve as well and I'm well aware of all the arguments).
I just put up another post about a comparison between 1988 and this year and why an assumption I've made in constructing the model will make it much harder to see the same large percentage deviation this year than was seen in 1988, it is an assumption about yield variation that doesn't matter much in a normal year. http://cropsize.blogspot.it/
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Somebody wanna do some grunt work?
