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| I agree the crop conditions should be positive, but I am not sure that the WASDE report will be as bullish as it could be. They may well take the route of a slow drop in their 2012 Corn yield vs. the 145 and below figures many are expecting as a final yield - note the pre-report survey that showed the average guess of what WASDE will show is at 154.1 on Corn and 42.3 on Soybeans. The estimates may not be the yields some of those reviewed expect as a final for the year but rather what they expect to be shown in the July 11th report.
The lowest yield I saw in the survey was 147.1 with a high way out there of 160.2 on corn.
The range on soybeans was 41.3 to 43.9.
Personally, I think if the weather continues to drop the 2012 Corn crop, it could easily fall to the 135 area and with 87% harvested acres vs. the 92+% shown now, it could result in a crop around 11.3 billion bushel.
Soybeans are harder to figure but a yield under last year's 41.5 would seem very possible given conditions to date.
We will need a significant amount of rationing on demand to occur if the corn crop shrinks to this level or lower and soybeans are in a similar situation and high prices are normally needed to lower demand. I agree with several on this site that we can only hope the lost demand is a short term answer and not a long term problem.
Remember that a lower harvested % means that those acres that might have been a very low yield are not included in the acres that are left.
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We put in the highs this week??
