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New Mexico | usa cowherd has declined in numbers for 14 of the past 16 years.
the cowherd has also declined for each of the past 6 years.
the 2011 calf crop was the smallest numbers in the past 60 years.
There has been a production "buffer" of decent beef tonnage due to increased cow productivity.
Cow inventory adjusted for increased steer carcass weights is similiar to 1995, which was a peak production year.
Beef production:
2009, 25.96 billion lbs.
2010, 26.3 billion lbs.
2011, 26.2 billion lbs.
2012, 25 billion lbs. projected, MW.
2013, 24.2 billion lbs. projected by MWright.
We are either now at or very close to the point where continued cow liquidation has now taken the "slack" out of the previous tonnage buffer.
Beef tonnage last week was 4% below year ago level, beef tonnage this week is 8% below year ago levels.
The total tonnage drop appears to have begun.
This deal is really going to be tight the last 1/2 of 012.
It is statistically impossible from this point to increase beef production for at LEAST 4 more years.
Annual calf crops will be lower annually for at LEAST the next 3 years.
It takes a few years of 20+% hiefer retention rates to stabilize usa cow herd numbers. MO.
Say we have approx. 30 to 32 million beef cows on hand.
2011 hiefer retention was 5.14 million head ( actually 1% more than some expected ).
Simple math indicates @ 20% hiefer retention would conservatively have to total in the 6+ million hd annual range to stabilize usa cow herd numbers.
Edited by Markwright 2/25/2012 02:41
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Cattle stats:
