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| As I have posted long ago, there was no 'great grain robbery' in the 1972-1974 period. I had a front row seat. We willingly sold the Soviets everything we had to finally get rid of our surpluses & just as 'goobers' at the local Carnival, we had no idea they were literally negotiating with every firm in North America. In fact, the only seller to hedge was a small outfit in Memphis...the big boys 'knew we were knee deep in supply'' when prices mysteriously kept rising & the 'big boys' all met one morning (unplanned) in the wheat pit as buyers....to hedge (buy) it suddenly dawned on them they'd been sandbagged. The folks up on the Lake (think North) never did reveal their trading profits for that year (I suspect it was an embarassing loss---a loss by folks who are supposed to be a genius firm in the markets)...
As a speculator, or a high risk oriented merchant.......you make your money when 'no one knows what anything is worth'....
I have been traveling this afternoon & just briefly looked at the COT report & appears some commercials increased their length but was a lot of short covering.
The next 30 days is a giant unknown...August weather.
A couple of weeks ago, I indicated the cycle we deal with in weather markets. First, speculators are caught by surprise...producers willingly sell the first good rally..as they have been 'beat apart' emotionally for months....$2.00 corn? Then, the market wades through the initial selling level...producers raise their sights a bit......the market chases the orders....in the final phase, producers (some) take a stroll through their fields & suddenly suspect they might have "sold a bit too much" & the 'REALLY BIG USERS" (I have dealt with most) who do not give their traders any authority.....FINALLY MAKE IT THROUGH ALL THE LAYERS OF VICE PRESIDENTS so they can make a decision.....THOSE BOYS ASSIST IN PUTTING A FINAL TOP.
How far away are we? No idea. I expect a wild open on Monday, (the crush closed out of line).....but, this deal, dependent upon august weather could yet be a dandy....a producer has to be a seller...but leave a little room...no one knows......gamble on the weather? worse odds than Vegas.
All I know, I am going to yet sit at the table for a few more sessions. Thus far, patience has paid well.
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When to 'fold em'
