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| IT is never easy to trade.
Long term is more like 2013.
The former soviet union countries have mixed problems. Some drought, some too wet. Most likely will still export a little wheat but the wheat balance sheet is shifting fast.
At this moment, there are a variety of considerations: protein requirements-primarily met with soy & ddgs, oils & fats, carbohydrates: corn & other coarse grains.
Wheat can be grown on a variety of soils. The acreage suited for high corn production is limited. The Soviets tried it in the northern latitudes and was a joke. A consideration peculiar to this year is the corn quality issue.
Our exports run about 50-50 (roughly) 2yc & 3yc grade. There is a lot of sample grade corn in the land this year. Therefore, an increased quantity of 2yc is going to be required to bring damage down to 7 or below. Most export elevators are not constructed to offer an expert blend process. Folks of my age may recall the ccc bin site corn.
So, we have a supply of corn, part of the carryout, which may be suited for ruminants & for industrial grinds with deep discounts. I note in the post about DUCK food....is a bit misleading....poultry are sensitive to quality also.
Several alternatives to consider midst all the above. Will some countries suffering crop losses begin to import meat? versus shipping bulk?
The USA & SA have a corn/soybean factory & the ability to provide quality nutrition to feed poultry & livestock.
I have always held a strong interest in grain quality. In the old days, we had on large wood house which was primarily used for soybeans & occasionally would fill it with corn....concrete structures & steel combined with high speed legs take a quality toll....so do dryers (batch) & some operations are not set up to screen high volumes of grain.
The other points: commercials currently own a 'below average' amount of corn futures suggesting commercials are not concerned about crop prospects. Other crops: rapeseed, canola, sugar beets & etc. are also being adjusted downward throughout the world.
China may choose to wait for new crop corn before they evaluate their needs....
Row crop agriculture, in my opinion, has a continuing positive future (in my opinion) & we may 'choke' occasionally --this upcoming crop report will be a dandy....abandoned acres will most likely be inaccurate...too much water in some areas..not enough in others & while 'rain makes grain' (I dislike that phrase)...there are subtle differences between the previous two years and this season.
Bottom line.....the fat lady is not yet remotely close to her final song.
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It's hard to trade
