Mr.Grain - 1/20/2024 21:54

I had an original post with the election year rally data. Per request I included the ending stocks and stocks to usage ratio as well on this post. On this post I also include the dates of the highs and the lows before the rally.

Average rallies from January 1st to our highs for the year during every election year since 2004.

Corn: + $1.52 3/4
Beans: + $3.89 1/2
Wheat: + $1.84

Here was the dates of those highs:

Corn:
2020: Dec 31st
2016: June 8th
2012: August 10th
2008: June 30th
2004: April 5th

Beans:
2020: Dec 31st
2016: June 10th
2012: September 4th
2008: July 3rd
2004: March 24th

Wheat:
2020: Oct 20th
2016: June 8th
2012: July 23rd
2008: Feb 27th
2004: March 22nd


Here were the dates of the lows we made before the rally:

Corn:
2020: April 29th
2016: April 1st
2012: June 1st
2008: March 8th
2004: Jan 12th

Beans:
2020: April 21st
2016: Jan 6th
2012: Jan 12th
2008: April 1st
2004: Feb 2nd

Wheat:
2020: June 20th
2016: April 16th
2012: Jan 18th
2008: Jan 10th
2004: March 12th


Carryout Numbers:

03/04
Ending stocks: 958
Stock/Use %: 9%

04/05
Ending stocks: 2,114
Stock/Use %: 20%

07/08
Ending stocks: 1,685
Stock/Use %: 13%

08/09
Ending stocks: 1,673
Stock/Use %: 14%

11/12
Ending stocks: 989
Stock/Use %: 7.9%

12/13
Ending stocks: 821
Stock/Use %: 7.4%

15/16
Ending stocks: 1,737
Stock/Use %: 12.7%

16/17
Ending stocks: 2,293
Stock/Use %: 15.7%

19/20
Ending stocks: 1,919
Stock/Use %: 13.7%

20/21
Ending stocks: 1,235
Stock/Use %: 8.3%