| I'm going to start off with some Good News.. sure could use some.
January Ethanol Exports were released yesterday.. For the month of January they were a RECORD.
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=M_EPOOXE_EEX_NUS-Z00_MBBL&f=M U.S. Exports of Fuel Ethanol (Thousand Barrels) | |
Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
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2010 | 324 | 519 | 1,153 | 973 | 414 | 387 | 603 | 707 | 929 | 834 | 930 | 1,717 | 2011 | 1,364 | 1,425 | 2,003 | 2,865 | 1,743 | 1,604 | 3,036 | 1,246 | 2,525 | 2,895 | 3,634 | 4,117 | 2012 | 1,819 | 1,785 | 1,992 | 1,775 | 1,397 | 1,410 | 1,519 | 1,206 | 1,191 | 1,284 | 965 | 1,313 | 2013 | 1,518 | 1,017 | 1,312 | 967 | 952 | 796 | 830 | 1,182 | 1,299 | 1,206 | 2,134 | 1,525 | 2014 | 2,091 | 1,517 | 2,059 | 1,659 | 1,265 | 1,378 | 1,599 | 1,292 | 1,353 | 1,949 | 2,114 | 1,872 | | 2015 | 1,640 | 1,662 | 2,057 | 1,761 | 1,497 | 1,499 | 1,716 | 1,272 | 1,492 | 1,792 | 1,427 | 1,995 | 2016 | 2,297 | 2,027 | 2,614 | 2,922 | 1,628 | 1,295 | 1,955 | 2,179 | 2,346 | 2,946 | 3,074 | 2,583 | 2017 | 2,844 | 3,605 | 3,023 | 2,115 | 2,862 | 2,297 | 2,822 | 2,285 | 2,011 | 2,488 | 2,565 | 4,175 | 2018 | 2,522 | 4,838 | 5,516 | 3,675 | 2,262 | 3,585 | 2,439 | 2,798 | 2,348 | 4,078 | 3,465 | 3,179 | 2019 | 3,048 | 2,715 | 3,335 | 3,578 | 2,375 | 3,059 | 2,863 | 2,921 | 2,540 | 2,689 | 2,558 | 3,490 | | 2020 | 3,602 | | | | | | | | | |
Now for the rest of the report..
Ugh.. Not a good one.
Ethanol plant production fell to 840 k bbls per day.. on the 30th week of the Crop production year. The Average of these 30 weeks for production at 1,026.3 k bbls per day has now fallen Below the Year ago pace of 1,027.2 k bbls per day.
Blenders input took a dive to 601 k bbls/day.. trending along with the dive in Gasoline supplied which fell to 6.659 myn bbls / day. The Weekly blend rate fell to 9.03%
Unfortunately the EPA is NOT upholding the LAW of the LAND in the RFS as the Blend rate Continues to slip at 9.86% for the year vs 9.94% Last year DESPITE having E-15 which is still CHEAPER than other alternatives of Gasoline made with Higher Costing Octanes.
Therefore even though Plant production fell.. blending and hence demand fell more which lead to Stocks moving higher. to 25.7 myn bbls which was a Record. However only about 11% of Blend Stock Gasoline which hovers around 225.5 million bbls. Obviously our nation and it's government has several significant challenges in the days ahead.
| | | | | | | | | | Computed | | | | | | | | | | | | Weekly Production | | | | | | | number to balance | Computed | Actual | Total | Weekly bu | | Weekly US | | Week | | Blenders Input | Imports | Stocks | Capacity | Residual and exports | Exports | Exports | Ethanol | Grind | Monthly | Year | Supplied Finished | | | Ethanol k bbls/day | k bbls /day | k bbls /day | k bbls | k bbls | | k bbls /day | k bbls | Monthly | EIA | demand | | | myn bu | Motor Gasoline | | | | | | | | | | 37,936 | | | | | | | | 2.85 | conversion | | | Ethanol as % of | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 12/6/2019 | 1072 | | 858 | | 66 | | 21,815 | 58% | | 112.0 | | 784 | | | 970.0 | 110,585 | | | 8882 | 9.66% | | 12/13/2019 | 1064 | | 912 | | 0 | | 21,798 | 57% | | 154.4 | | 1081 | | | 1066.4 | 109,760 | | | 9411 | 9.69% | | 12/20/2019 | 1083 | | 938 | | 0 | | 21,469 | 57% | | 192.0 | | 1344 | | | 1130.0 | 111,720 | | | 9303 | 10.08% | | 12/27/2019 | 1066 | | 884 | | 0 | | 21,034 | 55% | | 244.1 | | 1709 | 4918 | 3490 | 1128.1 | 109,966 | | | 8961 | 9.86% | | 1/3/2020 | 1062 | | 801 | | 0 | | 22,462 | 59% | | 57.0 | | 399 | | | 858.0 | 109,554 | | | 8133 | 9.85% | | 1/10/2020 | 1095 | | 854 | | 25 | | 23,006 | 61% | | 188.3 | | 1318 | | | 1042.3 | 112,958 | | | 8558 | 9.98% | | 1/17/2020 | 1049 | | 864 | | 0 | | 24,031 | 63% | | 38.6 | | 270 | | | 902.6 | 108,213 | | | 8662 | 9.97% | | 1/24/2020 | 1029 | | 873 | | 0 | | 24,244 | 64% | | 125.6 | | 879 | | | 998.6 | 106,149 | | | 8793 | 9.93% | | 1/31/2020 | 1081 | | 888 | | 0 | | 23,474 | 62% | | 303.0 | | 2121 | 4987 | 3602 | 1191.0 | 111,514 | | | 8933 | 9.94% | | 2/7/2020 | 1033 | | 873 | | 0 | | 24,358 | 64% | | 33.7 | | 236 | | | 906.7 | 106,562 | | | 8722 | 10.01% | | 2/14/2020 | 1040 | | 896 | | 0 | | 24,781 | 65% | | 83.6 | | 585 | | | 979.6 | 107,284 | | | 8918 | 10.05% | | 2/21/2020 | 1054 | | 902 | | 35 | | 24,718 | 65% | | 196.0 | | 1372 | | | 1098.0 | 108,728 | | | 9035 | 9.98% | | 2/28/2020 | 1079 | | 897 | | 0 | | 24,964 | 66% | | 146.9 | | 1028 | 3221 | | 1043.9 | 111,307 | | | 9186 | 9.76% | | 3/6/2020 | 1044 | | 919 | | 9 | | 24,334 | 64% | | 224.0 | | 1568 | | | 1143.0 | 107,697 | | | 9449 | 9.73% | | 3/13/2020 | 1035 | | 915 | | 0 | | 24,598 | 65% | | 82.3 | | 576 | | | 997.3 | 106,768 | | | 9696 | 9.44% | | 3/20/2020 | 1005 | | 874 | | 0 | | 24,140 | 64% | | 196.4 | | 1375 | | | 1070.4 | 103,674 | | | 8837 | 9.89% | | 3/27/2020 | 840 | | 601 | | 0 | | 25,717 | 68% | | 13.7 | | 96 | 3615 | | 614.7 | 86,653 | | | 6659 | 9.03% | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 19/20 MY 30 wks | 1026.3 | | 892.8 | | 13.0 | | 22747.9 | 60% | | 137.4 | | 961.9 | 4122.3 | 2975.8 | 1030.2 | 105,868 | 105,404 | | 9048.3 | 9.86% | | 18/19 MY 30 wks | 1027.2 | | 904.2 | | 4.1 | | 23498.2 | 62% | | 120.9 | | 846.5 | 3627.9 | 3195.3 | 1025.2 | 105,964 | 109,030 | | 9100.3 | 9.94% | | 15 byn target: | | 978.0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | -96.3 | -3,626 | | | | | 19/20 vs 18/19 | -0.1% | | -1.3% | | 2 | | -3.2% | | | 13.6% | | 13.6% | 13.6% | -6.9% | 0.5% | -0.1% | -47,143 | bu lower | -0.6% | -0.8% | | | | | -8.7% | | | | | | | | | estimated | Reported | | | | | | | | 999 | | 909 | | Last year | 23992.0 | yr ago | | | | 1086 | | | 1064 | | | | 9131 | 9.96% | | Cheers. Weekly production number http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=w_epooxe_yop_nus_mbbld&f=w Weekly Blenders Input.. http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=w_epooxe_yir_nus_mbbld&f=w Weekly Imports of Ethanol http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=W_EPOOXE_IM0_NUS-Z00_MBBLD&f=W Weekly Stocks number http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=W_EPOOXE_SAE_NUS_MBBL&f=W Weekly US Product Supplied of Finished Motor Gasoline http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WGFUPUS2&f=W Monthly US Exports of Ethanol http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=M_EPOOXE_EEX_NUS-Z00_MBBL&f=M Ethanol Supply and Disposition https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/PET_SUM_SND_A_EPOOXE_MBBL_M_CUR.htm
Edited by JonSCKs 4/2/2020 07:34
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