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Ethanol update. Can Ethanol help us FIGHT the Corona Virus?
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JonSCKs
Posted 4/1/2020 23:37 (#8157626)
Subject: Ethanol update. Can Ethanol help us FIGHT the Corona Virus?


I'm going to start off with some Good News.. sure could use some.

January Ethanol Exports were released yesterday..  For the month of January they were a RECORD.

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=M_EPOOXE_EEX_NUS-Z00_MBBL&f=M

U.S. Exports of Fuel Ethanol (Thousand Barrels)
 

 

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
  20103245191,1539734143876037079298349301,717
  20111,3641,4252,0032,8651,7431,6043,0361,2462,5252,8953,6344,117
  20121,8191,7851,9921,7751,3971,4101,5191,2061,1911,2849651,313
  20131,5181,0171,3129679527968301,1821,2991,2062,1341,525
  20142,0911,5172,0591,6591,2651,3781,5991,2921,3531,9492,1141,872
 
  20151,6401,6622,0571,7611,4971,4991,7161,2721,4921,7921,4271,995
  20162,2972,0272,6142,9221,6281,2951,9552,1792,3462,9463,0742,583
  20172,8443,6053,0232,1152,8622,2972,8222,2852,0112,4882,5654,175
  20182,5224,8385,5163,6752,2623,5852,4392,7982,3484,0783,4653,179
  20193,0482,7153,3353,5782,3753,0592,8632,9212,5402,6892,5583,490
 
  20203,602         

Now for the rest of the report..

Ugh.. Not a good one.

Ethanol plant production fell to 840 k bbls per day.. on the 30th week of the Crop production year.  The Average of these 30 weeks for production at 1,026.3 k bbls per day has now fallen Below the Year ago pace of 1,027.2 k bbls per day.

Blenders input took a dive to 601 k bbls/day.. trending along with the dive in Gasoline supplied which fell to 6.659 myn bbls / day.  The Weekly blend rate fell to 9.03%

Unfortunately the EPA is NOT upholding the LAW of the LAND in the RFS as the Blend rate Continues to slip at 9.86% for the year vs 9.94% Last year DESPITE having E-15 which is still CHEAPER than other alternatives of Gasoline made with Higher Costing Octanes.

Therefore even though Plant production fell.. blending and hence demand fell more which lead to Stocks moving higher. to 25.7 myn bbls which was a Record.  However only about 11% of Blend Stock Gasoline which hovers around 225.5 million bbls.  Obviously our nation and it's government has several significant challenges in the days ahead.

          Computed          
 Weekly Production      number to balanceComputedActualTotal Weekly bu  Weekly US  
Week Blenders InputImportsStocksCapacityResidual and exportsExportsExportsEthanolGrindMonthlyYearSupplied Finished 
 Ethanol k bbls/dayk bbls /dayk bbls /day k bbls k bbls k bbls /dayk bblsMonthlyEIAdemand  myn buMotor Gasoline 
        37,936       2.85conversion  Ethanol as % of
                      
12/6/20191072 858 66 21,81558% 112.0 784  970.0110,585  88829.66% 
12/13/20191064 912 0 21,79857% 154.4 1081  1066.4109,760  94119.69% 
12/20/20191083 938 0 21,46957% 192.0 1344  1130.0111,720  930310.08% 
12/27/20191066 884 0 21,03455% 244.1 1709491834901128.1109,966  89619.86% 
1/3/20201062 801 0 22,46259% 57.0 399  858.0109,554  81339.85% 
1/10/20201095 854 25 23,00661% 188.3 1318  1042.3112,958  85589.98% 
1/17/20201049 864 0 24,03163% 38.6 270  902.6108,213  86629.97% 
1/24/20201029 873 0 24,24464% 125.6 879  998.6106,149  87939.93% 
1/31/20201081 888 0 23,47462% 303.0 2121498736021191.0111,514  89339.94% 
2/7/20201033 873 0 24,35864% 33.7 236  906.7106,562  872210.01% 
2/14/20201040 896 0 24,78165% 83.6 585  979.6107,284  891810.05% 
2/21/20201054 902 35 24,71865% 196.0 1372  1098.0108,728  90359.98% 
2/28/20201079 897 0 24,96466% 146.9 10283221 1043.9111,307  91869.76% 
3/6/20201044 919 9 24,33464% 224.0 1568  1143.0107,697  94499.73% 
3/13/20201035 915 0 24,59865% 82.3 576  997.3106,768  96969.44% 
3/20/20201005 874 0 24,14064% 196.4 1375  1070.4103,674  88379.89% 
3/27/2020840 601 0 25,71768% 13.7 963615 614.786,653  66599.03% 
                      
19/20 MY 30 wks1026.3 892.8 13.0 22747.960% 137.4 961.94122.32975.81030.2105,868105,404 9048.39.86% 
18/19 MY 30 wks1027.2 904.2 4.1 23498.262% 120.9 846.53627.93195.31025.2105,964109,030 9100.39.94% 
                      15 byn target: 978.0            -96.3-3,626    
19/20 vs 18/19-0.1% -1.3% 2 -3.2%  13.6% 13.6%13.6%-6.9%0.5%-0.1%-47,143bu lower-0.6%-0.8% 
   -8.7%        estimatedReported      
 999 909 Last year23992.0yr ago   1086  1064   91319.96% 

Cheers.

Weekly production number http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=w_epooxe_yop_nus_mbbld&f=w

Weekly Blenders Input.. http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=w_epooxe_yir_nus_mbbld&f=w

Weekly Imports of Ethanol http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=W_EPOOXE_IM0_NUS-Z00_MBBLD&f=W

Weekly Stocks number http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=W_EPOOXE_SAE_NUS_MBBL&f=W

Weekly US Product Supplied of Finished Motor Gasoline http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WGFUPUS2&f=W

Monthly US Exports of Ethanol http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=M_EPOOXE_EEX_NUS-Z00_MBBL&f=M

 

 

Ethanol Supply and Disposition https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/PET_SUM_SND_A_EPOOXE_MBBL_M_CUR.htm



Edited by JonSCKs 4/2/2020 07:34
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