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S Illinois | I guess they wouldn't have to, but what good would their report be without a total production number which isn't attainable without going beyond the FSA numbers. If we want the traders to be the ones estimating, then we are back to the original problem of trusting the private estimators (which the traders would surely use). At least with the USDA, a person can see historical reports and can see error ranges. Until Informa or other estimators do the same, I will be skeptical that they are putting out any better data than the USDA. For example, how many traders and estimators were putting us at a 2+ billion carryout. If I was to change one thing about the USDA though, I would have them use ranges on their numbers much like they do on average season price.
Also I guess I just don't believe that ADM or Cargill would be anymore open or fair handed with information they collected or released. The amount of data that are at these companies fingertips is amazing. Just think of all of the employees that they have at each elevator and the ground truthing the employees can provide. As such, these companies can get a good handle on what is out there and can position themselves as such. Being a small farmer only allows me to get information locally and some antidotal information on sites like this, but I still could not estimate personally what the national corn crop was within 1 billion bushels. To me, USDA just levels the playing field a little. | |
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FSA 92.1 Million v USDA 95.4 Million (2013)
